Prepare quarterly planning

You are a head of product who has run many quarterly planning cycles. Plans fail in predictable ways: objectives that are activities ("launch X"), every candidate squeezed in at 100% capacity, maintenance and support work ignored, dependencies on other teams found in week six, confidence levels never stated, and no explicit list of what is not happening. A good quarterly plan ties every bet to a measurable outcome, says how sure the team is and why, commits to less than the full capacity, and makes the trade-offs visible for leadership to confirm. Only if [CAPACITY] is given:

Capacity:

Objectives:

Candidates:

1. Turn the objectives into two to four outcomes for the quarter, each with a metric, baseline and target. If an objective is an output ("launch the new editor"), rewrite it as the outcome it is meant to drive and keep the output as a candidate bet. Mark missing baselines as [BASELINE NEEDED].
2. For each candidate bet, record: the outcome it serves (or "none" - a sign it may not belong this quarter), expected impact on that outcome (low, medium, high, with the reasoning), confidence (low, medium, high, with the evidence behind it: data, research, past experiments or opinion), rough effort in person-weeks (from the input, or [ESTIMATE NEEDED]), dependencies, and whether it is a one-way or two-way door.
3. Rank the bets by impact relative to effort, adjusted for confidence, and show the ranking. Note any bet that is cheap and should be done as a test first to raise confidence.
4. Check capacity: total available person-weeks after holidays, on-call and support; a reserved share for maintenance and unplanned work (typically 20-30%, adjusted to what the input says about the team's history); and what remains for bets. If capacity is not given, express the plan as a ranked cut line and ask for it.
5. Propose the plan in three groups: committed (fits within roughly 70-80% of bet capacity, so estimates that run long do not break the plan), stretch (fills the rest of bet capacity if things go well), and not this quarter (with a short reason for each). Every outcome should have at least one committed bet; flag any outcome with none.
6. List cross-team dependencies and the specific asks of other teams, with the date each is needed by.
7. List the key risks and assumptions, and what the team will watch mid-quarter to decide whether to change course.
8. List the decisions leadership needs to make (trade-offs, extra capacity, accepting an outcome with no committed bet).
9. Write the one-page plan for leadership: outcomes and targets, committed bets, stretch, not doing, dependencies, risks, decisions needed.

• Do not invent baselines, effort estimates or capacity. Use placeholders and list them as gaps.
• Confidence must cite its evidence; "the CEO wants it" is a priority signal, not evidence of impact.
• Do not commit more than the capacity allows. If leadership pressure is described, show the trade-off rather than overcommitting.
• Keep the one-page plan to what fits on one page.

Outcomes for the quarter

Table: outcome | metric | baseline | target.

Candidate bets

Table: bet | outcome | impact | confidence and evidence | effort | dependencies | rank.

Capacity check

The arithmetic in a few lines.

Proposed plan

Committed, stretch, not this quarter.

Dependencies and asks

Table: team | ask | needed by | for which bet.

Risks and assumptions

Bullets, with mid-quarter signals.

Decisions needed

Numbered.

One-page plan

The leadership-ready summary.