Idea validation track

Finds out, with evidence rather than opinions, whether this idea deserves the founder's savings and career: assumptions, real customer conversations, a scan of what customers use today, a test where people commit time or money, then a go, pivot or stop decision. Every step stops for approval, and steps 2 and 4 wait until the founder brings back real results.

Only if [BUDGET] is given: Validation budget: [BUDGET]

Rules for every step: opinions ("I would use that") are not evidence; commitments of time, money or reputation are. Set success thresholds before a test runs, never after. Never invent interview results, competitors, prices or market figures; when you are unsure whether something exists, say what to search for. If no budget is given, assume a few hundred in spend and evenings, and say so. Keep a running list of assumptions with their status: untested, supported, weakened or killed.

Step 1: Assumptions and interview plan

1. Restate the idea: "For <customer> who <struggle>, <offer> that <outcome>, unlike <current alternative>." Mark vague parts.
2. Narrow the customer until the founder could list 20 real ones, and say where to find them.
3. List desirability, viability and feasibility assumptions, ranked by how fatal each is if wrong and how little evidence exists.
4. Write a problem-interview guide of 8-10 past-behaviour questions ("Tell me about the last time…"): what they did, what it cost, what they pay for today. No pitching, no "would you". Add an opening line and a referral ask.
5. Set the target before any interview: how many (usually 10-15), with whom, by when, and the result that supports or weakens each top assumption (for example "6 of 10 raise the problem unprompted and have spent money on it").
6. Give a one-page note template.

Stop for approval. Ask the founder to run the interviews and bring back notes or transcripts.

Step 2: Synthesize the interviews

If no notes or transcripts were provided, ask for them and stop. Never simulate interviews.

1. Check the sample against the customer definition; weight friends, family and off-segment people lower.
2. Per interview, extract facts: the problem in their words, frequency, cost, workaround, money or time already spent, short quotes.
3. Group patterns with counts ("7 of 11…"), separating unprompted from prompted.
4. Compare with the step 1 thresholds and update each assumption: supported, weakened, killed or untested.
5. Note surprises: another problem, a keener customer, a price signal.
6. Recommend: continue, narrow the customer, or reframe the problem.

Output an interview table (Interview | Fit | Problem | Frequency | Cost | Workaround | Spend | Quote), the patterns, the updated assumptions and the recommendation.

Stop for approval.

Step 3: Alternatives scan

1. List the alternatives customers mentioned, including non-products: spreadsheets, hiring someone, a general tool, living with it.
2. Give a research checklist for direct and indirect competitors: search terms, marketplaces, review sites, communities, and what to note (who it serves, price, complaints). State facts about named companies only if the founder supplied them; mark the rest "verify".
3. If the founder supplied research, build a table: Alternative | Users | Price | Strengths | Complaints | Switching cost.
4. Name the gap from the customer's view and the "good enough" alternative that is the real competitor.
5. Write a one-sentence positioning and a draft offer for step 4: what it is, for whom, the promise, the price, the delivery.

Stop for approval of the offer.

Step 4: Offer test

1. Choose the test for the riskiest remaining assumption within the budget: a landing page with a real price and a pay, pre-order or deposit button; a pre-sale or letter of intent to interviewees; or a concierge version for 3-5 customers. Say why.
2. Write what it needs: landing-page copy (headline, problem, offer, price, call to action, FAQ), the pre-sale message, or the concierge plan.
3. Set success and failure thresholds and the minimum sample before launch, with reasoning.
4. Give a tracking sheet and run time. If money is taken, say clearly what buyers get and refund promptly if it does not go ahead.

Stop for approval, then ask the founder to run the test and bring back the numbers.

With results: compare with the thresholds, check for flaws (too little traffic, wrong audience, broken page), update the assumptions and say what the results do and do not prove. Stop for approval.

Step 5: Go, pivot or stop

1. Summarise: Assumption | Status | Key evidence | Confidence.
2. Recommend one:

• Go: the next 30 days: smallest sellable version, where the first 10 paying customers come from, numbers to track.
• Pivot: what changes (customer, problem, offer, price or channel), what stays, and the next test.
• Stop: say so plainly and kindly, and list what is reusable.

1. Name the results that would reverse the decision.
2. If the founder plans to leave a job: months of runway at their costs, a milestone to hit before resigning, and a suggestion to see an accountant before taking money.

End with the single most important next action.